April 14, 2016

What’s Up With The Economy? Recession Probability and Business Conditions Update

There has been a lot of economic doom and gloom talk over the last couple months, with media “expert” after media “expert” saying the US economy is about to fall into a recession. It comes with the predictable warnings about a bad bear market. The vast majority of these talking heads are just voicing opinions based on their own views and often get emotional when voicing their perspective. The problem with these “experts” is there very little in the way of factual economic data to support any of their positions.

Understand that investing is not an activity that benefits from either uninformed opinion or emotions. In fact, the opposite is true – uniformed opinions and emotional decision making often cause grief to investors.

Success in the investment game is primarily about WHAT IS, not WHAT IF. What IF is the progenitor of fear and greed, arguably the cause of more financial grief than Alan Greenspan (that was a market nerd joke). What IS, by definition, restricts consideration and decision to the facts at hand.

I’m sure you’ve gone to a doctor at some point in your life because you had a cold – runny nose, sore throat, a bit of fever, maybe some aches and pains. Has the doctor ever said, “What if this isn’t a cold? What if this is pneumonia? What if one of your lungs is collapsing? Could it be that you have cancer? Maybe you are sniffling because you are about to fall victim to a hemorrhagic fever and the bleeding has started in your sinuses? Maybe you are achy because you are going to come down with Dengue Fever? Is it possible this is Malaria?

Do you believe the doctor could effectively manage your condition if the diagnostic conversation was about What IF rather than What IS?

Investing is no different. Any effective conversation or action has to be about What IS. What IF is basically irrelevant.

So, let’s look at What IS.

At the most recent reading, the Recession Probability Indicator is cruising along at a steady 12, meaning the overall investment environment continues to be stable. That is subject to change, but for right now there is no recession on the horizon and in fact several key areas of the economy strengthened in the most recent month. If you aren’t familiar with the RPI, CLICK HERE to see how well it works.

Manufacturing, responsible for about 30{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} of our economy, moved back into expansion mode last month for the first time since last fall and the non-manufacturing sector of the US economy also strengthened a bit, which is good news for the other 70{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} of our economy.

A reminder – just because there is no recession doesn’t mean the market can’t go up and down, but that history vastly favors those who stay invested despite volatility, as long as there is no recession imminent.

If you’d like some evidence, take a look at the facts– Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios.

Fear helps the media sell advertising and brokers increase commissions, but it doesn’t help your investment portfolio get you to retirement with the assets you need to live the way you want to.

The point? Don’t let short term noise get in the way of a solid investment plan. Only impending recessions should do that.

For those interested, here is a link to the most recent Business Conditions Report by the American Institute of Economic Research– CLICK HERE.

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To Smarter Investing,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

January 15, 2016

2015 Process Portfolios Performance Summary

Press play to for the 2015 performance summary for all 6 Process Portfolios.

Highlights:
* 4/6 Portfolios beat their benchmarks.
* 3/6 portfolios beat the market (only 1 is designed to do that). All 3 featured about 30% less risk than buying the market.
* Significant out-performance in Market Income Portfolio and strong 2nd half performance in Durable Opportunities Portfolio.
* Video also contains a very brief discussion of key investment risks to watch in 2016.

Please review relevant disclosures by clicking the buttons at the bottom. As you know, investing involves risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions expressed in the above video are not guarantees.

Please share with the buttons below, and as always feel free to get in touch with questions by calling the office or reaching out via email.

Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

January 6, 2016

Recession Watch

Is 2016 the Year of Recession? This question seems to be on everyone’s mind and even the media talking heads have jumped on it to grab readers & viewers.

Spoiler: As of today, there is no recession on the horizon. The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) scored a 12 at the most recent reading, meaning the economic environment for investment is stable. That is subject to change, but as with all things that have to do with investing; it’s better to take direction from facts and not fears. My personal opinion is that the odds of recession are higher in 2016 than they were in 2015, but the fact remains: no recession yet on the horizon.

That doesn’t mean the market can’t go up and down (sometimes a lot), but that history vastly favors those who stay invested despite volatility, as long as there is no recession imminent. Don’t take my opinion, click the title at the right to see the facts– Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios.

Here’s some simple and quick proof-in-the-pudding: Pretend you had $200,000 to invest in January 2000. The first block gets invested the way financial salespeople tell you to invest – it’s going to stay invested no matter what because you “have to be in it for the long term.”

The second block of $100,000 is, to be simple, going to move to 100{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} cash as soon as it looks like there may be a recession coming. Call that the “RPI Guided” for Recession Probability Indicator.

Where are these two investments at the end of December 2015?

As you can see below, it pays to make rational decisions about investments rather than getting caught up in short term volatility or whatever the media clones are spouting off about.

As I observed in one of last month’s articles, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Markets (click title to read), it wasn’t clear a Fed rate raise was going to be the positive short term catalyst many market observers & participants thought. It may be that much of what we are seeing as we start 2016 is the holiday-delayed reaction to the Fed raise, mixed in with a liberal dose of alarming headlines arising from a wide spectrum of topics, some of which have no real bearing on investing. Some (me) might say most of which have no real bearing on investing.

Remember, fear helps the media sell advertising and stock brokers earn commissions, but it sure as heck doesn’t help investment portfolios do what they are supposed to do, which is be there for you when you retire, with the assets you need to live the way you want to. Don’t let short term noise get in the way of a solid plan. Only impending recessions should do that, and if you have a real investment plan, you already know what you are going to do when the next recession comes.

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To Smarter Investing,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

December 7, 2015

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)

image source dreamstime — image source unavailable

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)

We’ve all heard “You’ve got to be in it for the long term,” or “You can’t catch the rallies unless you are in the market” from brokers or financial salespeople (they prefer “financial advisor”) and as a result more than one investor has had night sweats or an obsessive compulsion to check portfolio balances several times a month when the market starts selling off hard.

But that thinking is incredibly costly:

As you can see from this 25 year market study from Hepburn Capital Management, catching the rallies isn’t nearly as important as missing the valleys.

Click graphic to enlarge

If you are like most people, the above makes it pretty clear that your broker or financial salesperson (ahem, “financial advisor”) isn’t giving you the facts.

Bottom line: If you missed the best and the worst over the last 25 years, you are almost doubling your investment performance. Reasonable risk for reasonable return is good label and it’s how the most successful investors handle their accounts.

What does this really tell us?

The worst times for investing are prior to recessions. Put your money to work ahead of a recession and most likely you will have to live with years of losses before your account even makes it back to break even. Why is that?

Click to enlarge

The above shows you the gain required just to get back to break even. Following the DotCom crash, it took the market about seven years just to get back to break even. Following the Great Recession, it took about five years and that was with massive, unprecedented government support in the form of trillions of quantitative easing.

Still not buying it? Here’s an even simpler example; Pretend you had $200,000 to invest in January 2000. The first block gets invested the way financial salespeople tell you to invest – it’s going to stay invested no matter what because you “have a long term plan.”

The second block of $100,000 is, for the sake of simplicity, going to be moved to 100{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} cash as soon as it looks like a recession may be coming – Call that “RPI” guided for Recession Probability Indicator. CLICK HERE to get the most recent recession probability reading.

Click graphic to enlarge. Both examples exclude dividends.

Now, this is just an illustration, but it’s pretty clear that getting out before things get bad and getting in after things have already started to recover may be a very good thing. Consider that in this illustration, the RPI guided account would be 97{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} higher AND you didn’t have to lose sleep at night worrying if your portfolio was going to be ruined while you were “in it for the long term.“ Protecting the RPI guided account when investment conditions were not favorable made a huge difference between these two investment accounts. H-U-G-E.

The fact is, both of these accounts are in it for the long term, but normal “buy and hold” was also in it for the best days at the price of being in it for the worst days. As we’ve seen, this is too high a price to pay for most investors.

Now, your financial salesperson may have also told you that you can’t predict recessions. That is not true. The Federal Reserve, along with dozens of other in-the-know players like hedge fund and mutual fund managers, track certain sets of data to give them a heads up when a recession is coming. Nothing in life is absolutely guaranteed except death, taxes, and calls from telemarketers but these data sets – things like consumer price index, retail sales, leading indicators, purchasing managers index, etc. can be assembled to give a pretty good picture of when recessions are most likely. In the past, they have given a warning signal anywhere from three to nine months before the market realizes we’re in a recession and acts accordingly.

Click graphic to enlarge

In the above illustration, the RPI gave a recession signal in January 2008 and confirmed it in March 2008, which would have spared many investors heartache (and dollars). Is it perfect? No. The market bottomed in March 2009 and the RPI didn’t give a reinvestment signal until October 2009, seven months later. But look at the table above the graph. Even missing that seven months, the RPI guided account still saw serious and sustained gains vs. the buy and hold.

There are no guarantees the RPI will spot the next recession – in the last 30 years it’s accurately warned of a recessionary bear market a bit over 70{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} of time. Of course, there are no guarantees you will be robbed tonight – but I’ll bet your house is probably equipped with an alarm anyway.

Whatever a thief would take from your house is worth substantially less than your investment account(s). Sleep better knowing ACI is monitoring a pretty good alarm built to help protect your money.

Remember, successful investing isn’t about catching the rallies nearly as much as it is about missing the valleys.

To get a monthly update on the likelihood of recession in the form of the Recession Probability Indicator (and other good stuff), sign up at the top right.

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To Smarter Investing,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

November 19, 2015

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do?

Market Valuation Update November 2015

I’ve broken this update into 2 parts. The first will just give the big picture summary for my executive type clients and the second, below the illustrations, is a discussion of the factors involved for those interested.

The S&P 500 earnings in the last 4 quarters have fallen about 12{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} vs. the previous 4 quarters. Price is about the same. What does this mean for investors?

Part 1 – Findings
Buying the S&P 500 Index at current prices offers total expected returns in the 1{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} – 4{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} range over the near-to-intermediate term based on current earnings. The index does not represent a good opportunity to most investors at current valuation, which is about 20{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} higher than the 10 year average value of the S&P 500.

There is about a -16{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} margin of safety associated with buying the S&P 500 at the current earnings level. In English, that means that buying the S&P index now could mean unrealized losses in the area of -16{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} for a few quarters IF earnings don’t recover. For the record, my current view is they will.

Commentary: Earnings appear to be recovering in the index and many (but not all) of the factors driving recent earnings weakness may be transitory. The American Economy is expanding, albeit slowly, while consumer spending (70{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} of the economy) is still fairly strong and appears to be increasing. Both factors should give a lift to earnings over the next few quarters, and therefore the price of the S&P 500 Index.

In the meantime, it’s probably best to seek investment opportunities away from the main stock indices, and in the US. There are solid earnings and reasonable value in several sectors including non-internet technology. Look to avoid or minimize excess exposure to assets threatened by dollar strength, Europe, South America and other less developed markets.

If you are participating in a 401k plan are unsure what to do moving into year end and next year, email me and we’ll see what can be done to put you on the best investment footing possible for 2016. —-> Contact Dak

* Negative price-to-earnings ratios during the Great Recession have been set to “0” for the graphic above to make the chart more readable, and extremely high one-time p/e’s have been capped at 25 for the same reason. Click the graphics to make them larger.

Part 2 – Discussion (optional reading)
The problem with this is not so much the reduced earnings so far in 2015 (which would be scarier if the economy was heading into recession but it isn’t), but whether historical valuations for the S&P 500 support higher prices based on current earnings. The answer to that is probably not. Earnings need to recover in order to drive the S&P meaningfully higher.

Before you panic and hit the sell button, understand that while the S&P 500 itself may not be a good investment at the moment, that doesn’t mean there aren’t good stock investments available. Most sophisticated managers look for investment opportunities beyond the S&P 500, I among them. There are solid investment opportunities out there, but right now buying the S&P 500 index probably isn’t one of them.

Why?

We saw the S&P 500 move up pretty aggressively in 2013 and 2014, but earnings began to fall as we entered 2015 due to a variety of factors I won’t get into here. The result? As earnings have fallen the valuation of the S&P 500 has risen, eroding the margin of safety in the index and also lowering expected future returns.

Because price has not followed earnings down, the S&P is a bit rich right now (about 20{1b789970f5b587cdad7e2a0d5c032cbf2e438ab9022fea5c2ba3cf7af142fa35} higher than the average 10 year valuation). This doesn’t mean it’s going to collapse, nor is the index in bubble territory. It does mean that investors are willing (so far) to pay more for less, unsurprising given alternatives in the fixed income world.

Investors continue to accept lower returns in the S&P for the simple reason that interest rates are low and basically force investors to hold risk assets. The S&P 500 in the form of the ETF SPY is one of the best known and widely owned risk assets available, which makes it the purchase of least resistance for index investors of all sizes.

To understand whether you should invest and where, it’s important to understand a few key concepts. Some clients are already familiar with these concepts. Feel free to skip.

How the Market is Priced.
The stock market is driven by valuation, and valuation is driven by earnings. This is how the wealthiest investors think, and they use that thinking to help them manage their investment risk. The term is “margin of safety” and it’s an important concept. Successful investors are searching for that margin of safety, whether they are small investors with a million or two, or a mutual fund with hundreds of billions under management. Big or small, investment success demands the same discipline.

Generally speaking, the higher the valuation versus the historical average valuation, the lower your margin of safety.

There is another side to this coin –“expected return“–it’s the potential reward you may receive for buying at a certain valuation level. The lower the valuation versus earnings, the larger the margin of safety and the larger the expected return.

Add expected return to the dividend payout and you get “total expected return” which is exactly what it sounds like.

That’s it. Hope this update helps you sort through the useless noise in the financial news.

If you have additional questions feel free to reach out, and please share using the buttons below.

Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC
Process Portfolios, LLC.

Next week’s updates:
* Process Portfolios Performance Update
* Controlling Long Term Health Expenses

November 13, 2015

Jobs Up, Spending Solid. Will December Bring Santa or the Grinch? RPI & Business Conditions Update

The Market has circled back around to concerns about a possible Fed rate raise and weakness in overseas economies since recovering in October, losing over 2% as of today’s writing. But recent data suggest little in the way of changes in US economic data – jobs are trudging along with a slight recent improvement, consumer spending is stable and appears to be strengthening into the holidays, and the recent fall in oil prices will be help keep a damper on inflation while supporting holiday spending.

The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) most recent reading is 12, denoting a stable investment environment where the economy is supportive of continued investment with little to no current risk of recession. A growing economy is supportive of future earnings, which is a positive for the stock market.

If you are new to the RPI, it’s a tool to measure the strength of the American economy and the safety of the investment climate. It’s built on data from the Federal Reserve and has demonstrated itself to be highly effective on a historical basis.

CLICK HERE to learn more about the RPI and see an illustration of it’s potential impact on investing. Scroll down to look at the updated tables. You will be impressed.

For those interested, below is my summary opinion of current conditions and whether the Fed is going to act like Santa or the Grinch in December;

Although prices in some sectors of the market are a bit high, overall they are still within historical ranges and not in bubble territory. Many sectors are at or near fair value. If the economy appears supportive of current stock prices, why the the choppiness we’ve seen since starting November? First, the media has to talk about something to create attention and sell ads. Playing on fear is one of the most effective tools for capturing consumer attention.

Second, the Fed has been sending mixed messages for months which prolongs uncertainty — the only thing that is clear is the Fed wants to raise rates but hasn’t been able to pull the trigger yet.

Third, October was a strong month for the market and it’s perfectly normal for the market to give back some gains following a big move up. Barring nasty earnings surprises or a changing probability of recession, a pullback following a run like October gives the market time to consolidate in order to move higher in the future.

So, will the Fed raise rates in December and what will happen when/if they do?

As of today, approximately 68% of analysts and traders are predicting a raise in December. There have been few if any changes of import since the Fed declined to raise in September and inflation risks continue to muted. My opinion, right or wrong, is for rate liftoff in early to mid 2016 and no raise in December. We’ll see. If I’m going to be wrong on the Fed rate raise, December is probably the month it happens.

When the Fed does raise, be it December or later, will markets react? More than likely. However, the Fed isn’t going to raise aggressively, and the increments will be small and gradual. The decision is unlikely to impact equity markets except in the very short term.

Here is a link to the November Business Conditions Summary from the American Institute for Economic Research for interested readers—> CLICK HERE

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Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios

October 17, 2015

Will US Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market?

Will the Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market? Investment & Business Conditions Update

October 2015

There has been great concern recently among talking heads whether or not the Fed will raise rates and what the impact on the economy will be if they do. The fact is the US economy is trudging along and is likely to continue to do so whether or not the Fed raises rates incrementally over the next few quarters. The market’s concern, misplaced in my opinion, is that once the Fed starts hiking it won’t stop until rates are normalized. That isn’t going to happen. Any hikes will be small, and the path to normalcy will take several years. Our economy is okay, but it isn’t in a position to support a typical rate hike cycle and the Fed, despite fumbling the message repeatedly, knows it.

So, if we can discount the Fed (at least for now) what are we really seeing? The Recession Probability Indicator improved mildly from last month with a current reading of 12, indicating a stable investment climate and a mildly growing economy with no current risk of recession. That suggests that the economy, as it continues to grow, should ultimately support higher earnings which is a positive for the stock market.

The RPI runs on a 2 month delay due to the Fed’s data release schedule.

If you are new to the RPI, it’s tool to measure the strength of the American economy and the safety of the investing climate. It’s built on data from the Federal Reserve and has demonstrated itself to be historically effective.

CLICK HERE to learn more about the RPI and see an illustration of it’s potential impact on investing. Make sure you take time to scroll down to take a look at the updated tables. Prepare to be impressed.

For those interested, I’ve also included the most recent summary from the American Institute for Economic Research below.

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Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

Monthly Summary of October Business Conditions from the American Institute of Economic Research

…The Economy…

Unusual demographic shifts currently underway and slated to last for many more years may be affecting the overall economic growth rate as well as creating pockets of relative strength and weakness. One example is in housing, where multifamily construction has rebounded more robustly than single-family homebuilding following the housing boom and subsequent bust that helped usher in the Great Recession.

Our Leaders index improved slightly in the latest reading, while cyclical scores changed little. Taken together, the AIER data suggest that the risk of recession in the coming six to 12 months remains low.

…Inflation…

The Consumer Price Index slipped month-to-month for the first time since February 2015. This is consistent with last month’s report that inflationary pressure was easing. The latest AIER inflationary Pressures Scorecard points to further downward pressure on inflation for months to come. Only eight indicators out of 23 show rising inflationary pressure, compared with 12 last month. The easing resulted from a recent slowdown in consumer demand and fast growth in supply. A decline in energy prices was another important contributor.

…Policy…

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, in line with market expectations. But the central bank’s projections continue to indicate that the first rate hike in more than nine years is likely to occur by the end of December. After holding rates near historic lows for so long, anticipation of the initial step toward normalization in monetary policy may actually stimulate borrowing in the short run as people try to get ahead of future increases.

Demographic change is slowing growth in the labor force and gains in educational attainment. The fastest way to reverse this—skill-based immigration—is unlikely to garner political support in Washington. Alternative but slower solutions include making it easier for American youth to continue their education beyond high school.

…Investing…

Yields on mortgage-backed securities are about in line with their historical relationship to U.S. Treasurys. An improving economy and healthier finances for borrowers would boost overall loan quality and help narrow yield spreads slightly. However, the prospect of Fed interest rate increases is likely to boost pressure on yields across the fixed-income spectrum.

Lumber futures prices have fallen more than other housing-market indicators would suggest.

A bubble in stock prices of U.S. homebuilders from 2000 through 2005 was worse than the better-known tech-stock bubble of the late 1990s. Following the bust in homebuilder shares and the Great Recession, homebuilder stocks since 2011 have slightly outperformed the broader market.

Global equity markets have struggled in recent months, reeling from a worldwide economic slowdown, the effects of potentially higher U.S. interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and ongoing military conflicts that have created arefugee crisis. For those with a high tolerance for risk, these times can create opportunity.

CLICK HERE for the full summary.

September 24, 2015

Stock Market Ups and Downs. What’s Next? Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook September 24, 2015

We’ve seen a lot of volatility (up and down, mostly down) in the market recently and headlines have some investors worried. Are there good reasons to be concerned? Maybe, but what’s really happening under the stock market’s hood? Video below.

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Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC
Process Portfolios, LLC

August 28, 2015

ACI Selected for 2015 Wealth & Money Management Awards

Wealth and Finance International, a print and online magazine dedicated to providing fund managers and institutional and private investors around the world with the latest industry news across both traditional and alternative investment sectors, has named ACI Wealth Advisors as an award winner for two categories in 2015.

2015 Wealth & Money Management AwardsFrom Wealth & Finance International: From asset managers to private bankers, financial planners to family offices, the 2015 Wealth & Finance International Wealth & Money Management Awards are dedicated to uncovering and promoting the work and achievements of the very best the financial services community has to offer.

The awards are all about the individuals, firms and departments whose dedication and commitment in all aspects of the role have seen them achieve stellar results for their clients, whether assisting with managing their wealth, planning for the future of their business or their family or providing more general – but no less vital – advice.

The selection and judging process is rigorous and far reaching and we have welcomed nominations from and on behalf of firms throughout the world, from the smallest niche practices to the largest and most powerful global corporations. It is of great importance to us that, throughout every step of the awards process, we do everything we can to ensure that those who do go on to win one of these highly sought after prizes have been chosen purely on merit and based only upon the votes received, the further evidence supplied and our own in-depth in-house research.

Please click the graphic above to learn more, or use the icons below to share.

August 24, 2015

Stock Market Outlook August 2015 S&P 500 Loses 5% in 2 Days. What’s Happening?

Stock Market Outlook August 23, 2015

See the below 7 minute video for my current market outlook. I thought I’d release this a couple days early given the big selloff we saw in the market last week.

Summary: Good news–No evidence of an incipient Bear Market as yet.

Please share using the buttons below.

Warm Regards,

Dak Hartsock
Chief Market Strategist
ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Process Portfolios, LLC.

1 2

bull market

What’s Up With The Economy? Recession Probability and Business Conditions Update

2015 Process Portfolios Performance Summary

Recession Watch

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do?

Market Valuation Update November 2015

Jobs Up, Spending Solid. Will December Bring Santa or the Grinch? RPI & Business Conditions Update

Will US Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market?

Stock Market Ups and Downs. What’s Next? Stock Market Outlook

ACI Selected for 2015 Wealth & Money Management Awards

Stock Market Outlook August 2015 S&P 500 Loses 5% in 2 Days. What’s Happening?

For ACI, investment management begins with understanding and actively managing risk for our clients and partners. We do this through smarter investments built on low cost, highly liquid and diversified investments rather than expensive financial products. CLICK HERE to learn more.

ACI uses customized planning software to create retirement income plans to meet the specific needs of each of clients while providing confidence, flexibility, and cost efficiency.

Success in any endeavor comes from hard work, vision, and planning. We can help you create a more confident future by working with you, your CPA, your tax and estate counsel to make sure that when the tomorrow becomes today, you are where you want to be.

Diversified, broad exposure to fixed income ETFs and best of breed no load funds including core fixed income components such as Government, Corporate or MBS, municipals, and unconstrained “Go Anywhere” funds.